--- title: Forecasting a dark art or a deep science? description: Forecasting a dark art or a deep science? image: https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/4/005/059/3d0/05ee766.jpg --- [hello@psdtohubspot.com](mailTo:hello@psdtohubspot.com) [+91 8874569874](tel:+91%208874569874) Hours : Opens 10:00 AM To 07:00 PM [![logoHD](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/hs-fs/hubfs/logoHD.jpg?width=2500&name=logoHD.jpg "logoHD")](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/) - [Home](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/home) - [Subscribe](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/pt-blog-subscribe-opt-in-consent?hsCtaTracking=174cc371-9cdc-4b94-a32e-9007f0ac4dea%7C0776642c-2604-4695-8e3f-f7a74f10031a) - [Contact Us](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/contact-us-old) - [supply chain](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/supply-chain) - [logistics](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/logistics) - [inventory](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/inventory) - [optimisation](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/optimisation) - [planning](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/planning) - [forecasting](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/forecasting) # [Forecasting a dark art or a deep science?](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/forecasting-a-dark-art-or-a-deep-science) Its fascinating that everyone is a forecasting expert, give them a series of numbers and they will h... [Read More →](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/forecasting-a-dark-art-or-a-deep-science) - [supply chain (286)](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/supply-chain) - [technology (138)](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/technology) - [logistics (81)](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/logistics) - [procurement (69)](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/procurement) - [optimisation (65)](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/optimisation) Posted by [Dave Food](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/author/dave-food) on Apr 11, 2016 6:00:00 AM ![Dave Food](https://app.hubspot.com/settings/avatar/9fa060d35f0f962fafafe972c24035ae) Find me on: [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/davefood) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/davefood) [Twitter](https://www.twitter.com/davefood) Its fascinating that everyone is a *forecasting expert*, give them a series of numbers and they will have a go at an estimate of the next 3 in the series. If you ask them to **predict** the **probability** of something such as tossing a head or a tail, after an observed series again they will have a go with a modicum of confidence. There are plenty of algorithms that can analyse historical data and generate a **sales forecast**, many of them have a *pick best logic*, to retrospectively generate a best fit view, where as this can generate some reasonable numbers it often generates unstable changes within the forecast. If your business needs both **forecast stability** and **forecast accuracy**, whilst generating an analysis on of **demand variability** then you probably need [best in class tools](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/panorama)that can look at demand signals at the item by location level, with an analysis at the order/customer level then these tools will give you a **forecast** with a recommended **safety stock** to ensure you have an ability to maximise your customer service with your best level of inventory. ![Forecasting a dark art or a deep science](https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/4/005/059/3d0/05ee766.jpg "Forecasting a dark art or a deep science")If this kind of strategy is something that your business is looking for, your customers are demanding *better customer service*, your *product portfolio is proliferating* and your long tail of products has grown significantly, then using **best in class tools** (systems of innovation according to **Gartner**) then you ought to be considering companies like **[ToolsGroup](http://www.toolsgroup.co.uk/).** What is your strategy for adding capability to your system of record, your existing ERP system? Would value your thoughts.     Dave Food [Prophetic Technology](https://www.prophetic-technology.com/) - [supply chain](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/supply-chain) - [logistics](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/logistics) - [inventory](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/inventory) - [optimisation](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/optimisation) - [planning](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/planning) - [forecasting](https://blog.prophetic-technology.com/topic/forecasting) - - - ## Post Your Comments Here #### About Us Prophetic Technology is a team of dedicated people that combine their expertise in business domains with a passion to release potential.s every page it appears on. 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